Analisis Risiko Proyek Konstruksi Jalan Tol Menggunakan Metode Risk Matrix dan Relative Importance Index (RII)

Arief Budi Hartono, Mardiaman Mardiaman

Abstract


Toll road construction projects are characterized by high complexity and uncertainty due to the involvement of multiple stakeholders, regulatory constraints, and dynamic site conditions, which often lead to delays and cost overruns. Despite extensive studies on construction risk, existing approaches tend to apply fragmented methods that fail to simultaneously capture risk magnitude and prioritization in an integrated manner. This study aims to develop a comprehensive risk evaluation framework by integrating the Risk Matrix and Relative Importance Index (RII) to identify, assess, and prioritize risks in toll road construction projects. A quantitative approach was employed using primary data collected through structured questionnaires distributed via Google Form to project stakeholders between January and February 2026. The identified risk variables were analyzed by calculating risk scores based on probability and impact, followed by RII to determine risk prioritization. The results were further visualized using a risk heatmap to enhance interpretability. The findings reveal that the most critical risks are predominantly associated with non-technical factors, particularly land acquisition delays, land readiness issues, and inter-agency coordination. These risks consistently rank highest in both risk matrix and RII analyses, indicating strong agreement between risk severity and stakeholder perception. Additionally, operational risks such as construction delays and traffic disruptions also contribute significantly to project performance degradation. This study contributes by proposing an integrated and visually enhanced risk assessment framework that bridges the gap between quantitative evaluation and practical decision-making. The proposed approach provides a more comprehensive understanding of risk distribution and prioritization, offering practical implications for improving risk management strategies in large-scale infrastructure projects, particularly in developing countries.

Keywords


construction risk; toll road; risk matrix; relative importance index; risk heatmap

Full Text:

PDF

References


Ackon, F., Kheni, N.A., Mensah, J.V. & Barajei, C., 2024, ‘Effects of Organizational Culture Types on Construction Project Performance: A Competing Values Framework Approach in Ghanaian Perspective’, African Journal of Empirical Research, 5(4), 1850–1858.

Agyekum-Mensah, G. & Knight, A.D., 2017, ‘La perspectiva de los profesionales sobre las causas del proceso. Retraso en la industria de la construcción’, Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 24(5), 828–841.

Ahiaga-Dagbui, D.D., Love, P.E.D., Smith, S.D. & Ackermann, F., 2017, ‘Toward a Systemic View to Cost Overrun Causation in Infrastructure Projects: A Review and Implications for Research’, Project Management Journal, 48(2), 88–98.

Alaloul, W.S., Liew, M.S., Zawawi, N.A.W.A. & Kennedy, I.B., 2020, ‘Industrial Revolution 4.0 in the construction industry: Challenges and opportunities for stakeholders’, Ain Shams Engineering Journal, 11(1), 225–230.

Assaf, S.A. & Al-Hejji, S., 2006, ‘Causes of delay in large construction projects’, International Journal of Project Management, 24(4), 349–357.

Azam, T., Song, W., Sohail, J., Malik, A., Yaqoob, S., Memoona, M., Zaheer, N. & Ihsan, A., 2020, ‘An analysis of causes of delay and cost overrun in construction of hydropower project’, Journal Public Affair, July(1), 1–10.

Bakhshi, P. & Touran, A., 2014, ‘An overview of budget contingency calculation methods in construction industry’, Procedia Engineering, 85(20), 52–60.

Chełstowska, A., Oleksandra, O. & Sosik, K., 2025, ‘The Impact of Construction Logistics and Project Implementation on Urban Quality of Life: The Grounded Theory Approach’, Sustainability, 17(6).

Doloi, H., 2013, ‘Cost Overruns and Failure in Project Management: Understanding the Roles of Key Stakeholders in Construction Projects’, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(3), 267–279.

Doloi, H., Sawhney, A., Iyer, K.C. & Rentala, S., 2012, ‘Analysing factors affecting delays in Indian construction projects’, International Journal of Project Management, 30(4), 479–489.

Endo, K., Gianoli, A. & Edelenbos, J., 2021, ‘Coming to Financial Close in PPPs: Identifying Critical Factors in the Case of Toll Road Projects in Indonesia’, Public Works Management and Policy, 26(2), 115–143.

Flyvbjerg, B., 2009, ‘Survival of the unfittest: Why the worst infrastructure gets built-and what we can do about it’, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 25(3), 344–367.

Flyvbjerg, B., Holm, M.K.S. & Buhl, S.L., 2003, ‘How common and how large are cost overruns in transport infrastructure projects?’, Transport Reviews, 23(1), 71–88.

Flyvbjerg, B.B., 2021, ‘Top-Ten Behavioral Biases in Project Management : An Overview’, Project Management Journal, 52(6), 531–546.

Gabel, M., Sujka, M., Davis, Z.W. & Keizur, A.E., 2022, ‘Performance of Risk-Based Estimating for Capital Projects’, Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2677(1), 1059–1070.

Gunduz, M. & Yahya, A.M.A., 2018, ‘Analysis of project success factors in construction industry’, Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 24(1), 67–80.

Hadi Kusuma, S., Ulfa Aulia, B. & Farikha, N., 2018, ‘Identifikasi Permasalahan dalam Pengembangan Jalan Tol di Provinsi Jawa Timur’, Jurnal Manajemen Aset Infrastruktur & Fasilitas, 2(0), 19–28.

Hermanto, D.R., Winanda, L.A.R., Kartika, D. & Munasih, 2026, ‘Analisis Ketidakpastian Durasi Menggunakan Metode PERT dan PDM Guna Mengantisipasi Risiko Pada Proyek Konstruksi’, Jurnal Talenta Sipil, 9(1), 354–362.

Hwang, B. & Ng, W.J., 2013, ‘Project management knowledge and skills for green construction : Overcoming challenges’, JPMA, 31(2), 272–284.

Hwang, B., Zhao, X. & Yi, S., 2013, ‘Identifying the critical factors affecting schedule performance of public housing projects’, Habitat International, 38(2013), 214–221.

Ibrahim, F.S., Esa, M., Mohammad, W.N.S.W., Abdullah, W.N.H.W. & Nhari, R.N.R., 2024, ‘The Integration of Bim and Ibs: A Case Study of Harmoni Elmina 1, Selangor, Malaysia’, Malaysian Journal of Sustainable Environment, 11(3), 81–100.

Islam, M.S., Nepal, M.P., Skitmore, M. & Drogemuller, R., 2021, ‘Risk Induced Contingency Cost Modeling for Power Plant Projects Muhammad’, Automation in Construction, 8123(1), 56.

Justin, C.Y., Payan, A.P. & Mavris, D.N., 2022, ‘Integrated fleet assignment and scheduling for environmentally friendly electrified regional air mobility’, Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 138.

Kaming, P.F., Olomolaiye, P.O., Holt, G.D. & Harris, F.C., 2010, ‘Factors influencing construction time and cost overruns on high-rise projects in Indonesia’, Construction Management and Economics, 15(1), 83–94.

Khumairoh, A.N.F.A., Nurayuni, I., Sa’diyah, I.S. & Mu’allimah, 2022, ‘Polemik Pengadaan Lahan Dalam Pembangunan Infrastruktur Jalan Tol Padang-Sicincin’, Jurnal Manajemen dan Kebijakan Publik, 7(2), 261–283.

Kudtarkar, S.G., 2020, ‘Resetting PPP in Infrastructure Model in India Post-COVID-19 Pandemic’, The Indian Economic Journal, 68(3), 365–382.

Lin, K., 2018, ‘The Politics of Financing the Highway Boom in China’, Asian Survey, 58(3), 511–534.

Love, P.E.D., Sing, C.P., Wang, X., Edwards, D.J. & Odeyinka, H., 2013, ‘Probability distribution fitting of schedule overruns in construction projects’, Journal of the Operational Research Society, 64(8), 1231–1247.

Mardiaman & Indriasari, 2025, Manajemen Risiko Proyek Konstruksi, vol. 1, KBM Indonesia.

Marzouk, M.M. & El-Rasas, T.I., 2014, ‘Analyzing delay causes in egyptian construction projects’, Journal of Advanced Research, 5(1), 49–55.

Memon, A.H., Memon, A.Q., Soomro, M.A., Memon, M.A. & Khan Sahito, J.S., 2023, ‘Structural model of cost overrun factors affecting Pakistani construction projects’, Mehran University Research Journal of Engineering and Technology, 42(2), 108.

Mohamed, E., Jafari, P., Siu, M.-F.F. & AbouRizk, S., 2017, Data-Driven Simulation-Based Model For Planning Roadway Operation And Maintenance Projects, Proceedings of the 2017 Winter Simulation Conference, 3323–3334.

Nayyer, M.I., Aravindan, M.R. & Annamalai, T.R., 2023, ‘Impact of Transparency Law on the Post-Award Development Phase Of Toll and Annuity PPPs’, Built Environment Project and Asset Management, 14(1), 22–37.

Nugraha, M.A., Oktaviani, C.Z. and Bulba, A.T., 2022. Pengaruh keterlambatan proses pengadaan tanah terhadap pencapaian waktu proyek. Jurnal Arsip Rekayasa Sipil dan Perencanaan, 5(1), pp.59-68.

Odeck, J. & Kjerkreit, A., 2019, ‘The accuracy of benefit-cost analyses (BCAs) in transportation: An ex-post evaluation of road projects’, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 120(December 2018), 277–294.

Rahmawati, N. & Tenriajeng, A.T., 2020, ‘Analisis Manajemen Risiko Pelaksanaan Pembangunan Jalan Tol’, Rekayasa Sipil Journal, 14(1), 25–18.

Rita, E., Carlo, N. & Nandi, 2022, ‘Penyebab Dan Dampak Keterlambatan Pekerjaan Jalan Di Sumatera Barat Indonesia’, Jurnal Rekayasa, 11(1), 27–37.

Sambasivan, M. & Soon, Y.W., 2007, ‘Causes and effects of delays in Malaysian construction industry’, International Journal of Project Management, 25(5), 517–526.

Sipala, L.O.M.A., Mardiaman & Sukahar, A.G., 2026, ‘Analisis Faktor Dominan Keterlambatan Waktu Pelaksanaan Proyek Rumah Susun Di Papua Barat Daya’, Menara: Jurnal Teknik Sipil, 21(2), 59–66.

Sutrisna, M., Pellicer, E., Torres-machi, C., Picornell, M., Sutrisna, M., Pellicer, E., Torres-machi, C., Picornell, M. & Torres-machi, C., 2018, ‘Exploring earned value management in the Spanish construction industry as a pathway to competitive advantage’, International Journal of Construction Management, 1–13.

Verasari, D.V. & Supriatna, A., 2026, ‘Evaluasi Manajemen Risiko pada Proyek Konstruksi Pembangunan Tembok Banjir Sungai Batang Merao Kota Sungai Penuh’, Jurnal Talenta Sipil, 9(1), 315–325.

Welde, M. & Odeck, J., 2011, ‘Do planners get it right? The accuracy of travel demand forecasting in Norway’, European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research, 11(1), 80–95.

Wibowo, A. & Kochendörfer, B., 2005, ‘Financial Risk Analysis of Project Finance in Indonesian Toll Roads’, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 131(9), 963–972.

Wibowo, A. & Santoso, S.R., 2024, ‘Cost Overruns Arising From Government-Led Risks in Indonesian Toll Roads’, Public Works Management & Policy, 29(3), 446–470.

Wondimu, P.A., Klakegg, O.J., Lædre, O. & Ballard, G., 2018, ‘A comparison of competitive dialogue and best value procurement’, IGLC 2018 - Proceedings of the 26th Annual Conference of the International Group for Lean Construction: Evolving Lean Construction Towards Mature Production Management Across Cultures and Frontiers, 1(July), 13–22.

Xiao, H. & Proverbs, D., 2002, ‘Construction time performance : an evaluation of contractors from Japan , the UK and the US’, 81–89.

Zou, P.X.W. & Zhang, G., 2009, ‘Managing risks in construction projects:Life cycle and stakeholder perspectives’, International Journal of Construction Management, 9(1), 61–77.




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.33087/talentasipil.v9i2.1394

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Jurnal Talenta Sipil, Faculty of Engineering, Batanghari University
Adress: Fakultas Teknik, Jl.Slamet Ryadi, Broni-Jambi, Kec.Telanaipura, Kodepos: 36122, email: talentasipil.unbari@gmail.com

Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.